The Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area, spanning South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe is one of the few remaining strongholds for Lions (Panthera leo) in southern Africa.

Central to the cross-border conservation area is the Kruger National Park which serves as a key source population of Lion for neighbouring reserves.   However, in the past decade, poaching has started taking a toll on the species, either through bushmeat snaring or the deliberate poisoning of carnivores, in certain areas.

In the first park-wide survey in 2005 the lion population was estimated at 1,803 individuals. With that survey now a decade old and reports of increased poaching—particularly in the northern Kruger National Park— the report states that concerns about the present status of Lions in the region are justified.

Partnering with South African National Parks (SANParks) and the Lion Recovery Fund, the Endangered Wildlife Trust (EWT) in 2024 undertook a Lion population survey in the northern half of the Kruger National Park to obtain robust estimates of Lion populations to inform future Lion management policies and practices.

During a similar Lion population survey in the Nxanatseni north region of the Kruger National Park over three months in 2023, the population was estimated at 105 individuals. Two field protocols had been used to collect the 2023 data – search encounters and camera traps.

In 2024, a three-month Lion population survey was conducted in the Nxanatseni south region of the Park using spatial capture-recapture models to obtain more reliable and comparable estimates of the abundance and density of lions.   Spatial capture-recapture entails taking photographs of a Lion’s whisker spots to identify individuals.  Some are seen more than once, thus the recapture of their information and avoiding counting the same lion twice.

Between July and September 2024, the members of the EWT’s Carnivore Conservation team drove 10,446 km in search of Lions, resulting in 182 detections of 74 individuals—22 males and 52 females. Because of the high mortality among Lions less than a year old, these were excluded from the survey.

Using this dataset, it is estimated that there are 144 lions in Nxanatseni South;  a density of 3.5 lions per 100 km².  Besides the higher number of Lion in the southern Nxanatseni area, the survey again found that Lion density decreased the further the carnivores were away from water.  Out of the 247 lions detected, 182 could be positively identified, while 65 could not.  Identifying more individuals would have improved precision without necessarily changing the estimated

The report states that Lion densities varied across the study area, with the highest estimates in sections, which support large herds of herbivores due to productive soils and grazing grounds. It adds that lower densities were found in the western sections, where mopane woodland, proximity to communities, and conflict with poaching may limit Lion populations. In another area, which had an intermediate density, poor soils, low rainfall and the hilly terrain were found to be constrains on the species.

Although poaching was not directly assessed during the study, poached Lion were found within the research area, on the western boundary of the Park, and the Limpopo National Park in Mozambique.

The report concludes that the observations are concerning given the conservation importance of the Kruger Lion population, adding additional research needs to be done to determine what effect water management and increasing human pressures may have on the species.

** The EWT would like to thank SA National Parks for permission to carry out the survey, AHA Hotels and Lodges and Singita for their logistical support,  LexEDA Infra Bharat Pvt. Ltd. for advanced computing support and the Lion Recovery Fund for their generous support.