The Great Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area (GLTFCA), which includes Kruger National Park, in South Africa, and Limpopo National Park, in Mozambique, is one of the last ten Lion strongholds in Africa. While these strongholds occur in formally protected areas and contain a stable or increasing population, indications are that the lion population in the northern reaches of the Kruger National Park are declining because of targeted poisonings and poaching.

In partnership with SANParks and the Lion Recovery Fund, the Endangered Wildlife Trust (EWT) has been monitoring lions across the landscape to understand their movements, habitat use and what measures are needed to alleviate threats to the iconic species.

From 17 September to 1 December 2023, a team from the EWT conducted a lion population survey in the Nxanatseni north region of the Kruger National Park. Spanning 5,62 square kilometres, the area spanned the Pafuri, Vlakteplaas, Punda Maria, Shangoni, Woodlands and Shingwedzi sections of the Park.

Two field protocols – search encounter and camera traps – were used to collect data. These were designed to obtain high quality photographs that the team could zoom into and be able to individually identify lions through their unique whisker spots. All photographs taken of lions were inspected to try and identify individuals roaming the area.

Because it is not feasible to find every lion in the landscape, methods were used enabling the team to estimate the number of lions based on a sample of that population. To do this, advanced spatial capture-recapture models that are widely used for large carnivores globally were used. Due to the fact that lions less than one year old tend to suffer high mortality, they were excluded from the analysis.

Results

The EWT team drove 10,006 km and deployed camera traps for 2,684 trap nights over the survey period. Using the combined dataset, it was estimated that there were 105 lions in Nxanatseni North.

Our survey represents the fifth estimate of lions in the Nxanatseni North region of Kruger: In 2005, a call-up survey estimated 283 lions; a 2008 call-up survey with reduced sampling estimated 75 lions; the 2005 survey was replicated in 2015 and estimated a population of 119 lions and in 2023, the estimate was 122 lions. The EWT’s estimate of 105 lions is similar to the latter two surveys.

All were conducted in the same region and are estimates of lions over the age of one year. This represents a possible 63% decline over the 18 years separating the surveys. The precise reasons for this have not been investigated, but anecdotal evidence suggests that there has been an increase in targeted poaching of lions, coupled with increased levels of general bushmeat poaching.

Our results show that lion density is lowest in the Pafuri and Punda Maria sections, areas that are thought to suffer from relatively high levels of snaring, poisoning, and general poaching.

The results also provide a clear signal that distance to water is an important factor explaining the variation in lion density across the landscape. Lion density was highest close to water. In recent times, artificial waterholes have been switched off in Kruger National Park, and this will likely have had an impact on lion numbers in the Nxanatseni North region, which has a semi-arid climate. Worth noting is that while lions are not dependent on water, their primary prey species typically are.

Conservation approaches typically encompass a range of approaches aimed at safeguarding their habitats, mitigating human-lion conflicts, combating poaching and illicit wildlife trade, and fostering harmonious coexistence between lions and local communities.

Identifying trends in lion numbers and demographics remains crucial for their conservation, as is investigating the factors that drive those trends.

We recommend that future conservation efforts are coupled with regular population monitoring in this region to inform conservation actions and assess their effectiveness, taking an adaptive management approach.

** The EWT would like to thank SA National Parks for permission of carry out the survey, AHA Hotels and Lodges for their logistical support and the Lion Recovery Fund for their generous support.